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CRUMDUM - Week 12 - Mid-Season Update
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CRUMDUM MID-SEASON UPDATE
WEEK 12 STANDINGS
1st Place - DTNS - $520M ($153M last 2 weeks) - $85 Spent – 6.1 Multiplier
2nd Place – Night Attack - $502M ($87M) - $93 – 5.4
3rd Place – Frogpants - $240M ($19M) - $51 – 4.7
4th Place – Big & Tall - $172M ($2M) - $18 – 9.6
5th Place – ScotchBros - $110M ($23M) - $44- 2.5
6th Place – Cordkillers - $82M ($31M) - $42 – 2.0
As we hit the midpoint of the 2017 Summer Movie Draft, certain terms come to mind—parity, balance, anybody’s ballgame—as terms we should all ignore this season.
The top two teams have combined for a little over one billion dollars, while the remaining four teams have compiled just over half that at $600 million. True, DTNS and Night Attack each have only one movie left to release compared to the chase pack’s fourteen (evenly divided 3-3-3-2, the team with two owning possibly the highest remaining grosser), but there’s no denying this is a two team race. Whoa, whoa—ease up on the fist pumping there Night Attack, we may not have been clear about something…
Frogpants - 6th Place – $510M (Pre-season pick: 6th / $615M)
We had a little fun in the last CRUMDUM letting the experts at Box Office Pro call the final standings. This is our biggest disagreement, thanks mainly to next month’s Dunkirk. We’ve given it a bit of a bump from our original $120M to $150M, but we cannot see our way clear to joining Box Office Pro’s optimistic Saving Private Ryan-ish $240M. Yes, it’s Christopher Nolan; yes, it’s allegedly more action movie than war movie; but we can’t get fully behind a film whose title sounds like something Spock asked under his breath every time the Enterprise captain rambled on too long.
And as much as we want The Dark Tower to be as good (and successful) as the books, the vibe we're getting is "the man in black opened across the country, and seventy million in box office followed."
Cordkillers - 5th Place – $513M (Pre-season: 4th / $625M)
Unfortunately, Mulango and Kristi’s Summer of Curses continues, and you can’t spell “I’m cursed” without “Cruise.” The Mummy star joins Ryan Reynolds, Emma Watson, and Tom Hanks on the roster of Cordkiller stars you wouldn’t normally bet against who have made it their 2017 mission to screw over their owners.
Things should get significantly better later this month with Despicable Me 3 and The House (our pick for highest-grossing R-rated comedy of the summer), and let’s not overlook their utter dominance in the coveted category of Title Efficiency. Their five movies—Life, The Circle, The Mummy, Despicable Me 3, and The House—total only ten words, or 2.0 words per title, shaming the likes of Night Attack and their marquee killing nine-worder Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell no Tales.
ScotchBros – 4th Place - $555M (Pre-season: 3rd / $630M)
Ah, spring. The earth’s annual rebirth. Warmth and color return to the world. When, to quote Tennyson, “a young man’s fancy lightly turns to thoughts of love of 70s and 80s TV shows being turned into wildly profitable movies which lead to Movie Draft championships.”
Sometimes, though, spring is accompanied by harsh frosts of disinterest capable of decimating a fragile, budding ChiPs or Baywatch franchise before it can even get started.
Cargill and Jason tried everything—an R-rated comedy starting with “CH,” an R-rated comedy ending in “CH,” and even a non-R-rated, non-comedy with NO “CH” AT ALL!
Like Cordkillers, ScotchBros have better days ahead, starting right now with Cars 3 ($150M), followed next week by Transformers: Optimus Prime Two-Day Shipping ($200M), and finally, Valerian and the Box Office of a Thousand Dollars ($1,000). Enough, we believe, to keep them ahead of Frogpants and Cordkillers, and if the Cars franchise can recoup its earlier glory, catching Night Attack is not out of the question.1
Night Attack – 3rd Place - $614M (Pre-season: 5th / $620M)
To quote the 1970’s Terry Jacks classic:
We had joy, we had fun / We had seasons in the sun / But the wine and the song / Like the seasons have all gone
Yes, we had joy, we had fun / We had okay maybe not seasons but at least a couple weeks in the sun / We could whine we were wronged / But let’s face it Pirates of the Caribbean was a worthless piece of crap
Still, Guardians 2 is exceeding our projection (not pulling Baby Shark numbers, of course, but what could?) by essentially the same amount Pirates is falling shy, leaving Brian and Justin on track for the expected $620M-ish finish, though this will now be good enough for third rather than fifth place thanks to the implosions surrounding them in the standings in this summer of movie discontent.
Big & Tall- 2nd Place - $752M (Pre-season: 2nd / $680M)
We were tempted. We thought long and hard about switching these last two around. What stopped us, after a careful review of the numbers, the season’s trends, and frame-by-frame analysis of the trailers of all remaining movies, was our bitter reluctance to say we were wrong with our preseason pick.
Boss Baby remains the star of the draft to this point, and looks to remain a top-three pick by season’s end. While we have Spider-Man topping out at $300M, mostly due to the “I won’t be fooled again” factor from those unhappy with the previous two webslinger iterations (though if they focus the marketing—if every commercial, billboard, and bus sign simply says NO ORIGIN STORY, box office cashiers may literally drown in receipts).
Every time an R-rated comedy tanks
And Planet of the Apes is going to earn $200M, right? Box Office Pro says $150M, but why? The last made $209M, and as far as we know, this one still has apes riding horses, so where’s the dropoff?
The slightest overperformance by any of these entries could turn things upside down, but we say the 2017 Summer Movie Draft champ is…
DTNS – 1st Place - $756M (Pre-season: 1st / $810M)
In the Summer Movie Draft Preview, we had DTNS running roughshod over the league, mocking the very concept of “nearest competitor” by leaving Big & Tall a staggering $130M behind.
Now we think they’ll win by $4M.
And we’re confident enough about that to bet the leftover half of a pickle loaf sandwich from lunch today.
This outcome is contingent on Wonder Woman reaching $350M, Captain Underpants getting to $65M, and Atomic Blonde realizing our preseason claim that it would be the best value of the draft, taking in $73M on its $6 cost (12.2x multiplier). A gimme, right?
Should Tom and Jennie indeed hang on, the DTNS motto will be “never send a Vin to do a Woman’s job.”
Fate of the Furious falling $95M shy of our bandwagon-jumping $320M prediction, combined with Boss Baby’s $72M overperformance, could have made Big & Tall a prohibitive favorite at this season’s midpoint, but Wonder Woman is doing its heroic best to pick up the slack and keep Tom and Jennie’s championship hopes alive. In fact, DC’s unexpected exploration of the Enjoyable Superhero Movie genre will soon replace Big & Tall’s Boss Baby as the top value of the draft as it approaches an 11x multiplier.
And while Captain Underpants may not reach the $100M Box Office Pro expected, it certainly made its mark,2 skidding2 into the number two2 spot in its opening weekend.
In breaking DTNS advantage news… a check of the Thursday night screenings provides early word that Rough Night may not reach the $80M we thought Big & Tall would nab from it. But... Spider-Man. He scares us. Sure, the last one managed only $203M, and we’re already giving Homecoming credit for a 50% jump to $300M, which should be plenty of cushion, but feels less safe when you look back to 2002, 2004, 2007 and see that trio averaged $370M.
And this one has Iron Man.
It is apparently no longer conceivable for a Movie Draft to not go down to the wire.
WEEK 12 STANDINGS
1ST Place – thatron - $621M
2nd Place (tie) – Quantum Feline - $616M
2nd Place (tie) – Toner Boner - $616M
64th Place - StlLemieux - $514M
114th Place – Perfectfaceforradio - $474M
143rd Place – AndyBeach - $454M
220th Place - HoosierLibrarian - $374M
While the projected standings for the Big Six change only slightly with CRUMDUM numbers vs Box Office Pro’s, the shakeup is far more dramatic in the Chatrealm League. Our less enthusiastic hopes for Captain Underpants, Dunkirk, and Cars 3 cost the BOP top three nearly $200M and bumped them from the top ten.3
Replacing them at the top are…
1st Place (tie) (currently 355th / $277M) – blendermf - $915M (Captain Underpants, Wonder Woman, Transformers, Despicable Me)
1st Place (tie) (currently 355th / $277M) – Smeesmii - $915M (Captain Underpants, Wonder Woman, Despicable Me, Planet of the Apes)
3rd Place (412th / $228M) – jeterama - $910M (Wonder Woman, Transformers, Despicable Me, Girls Trip)
4th Place (412th / $228M) – Pedz - $885M (Wonder Woman, Transformers, Planet of the Apes, Girls Trip, Dark Tower)
5th Place (478th / $172M) – littlenicky160 - $875M (Boss Baby, Transformers, Despicable Me, Planet of the Apes)
Four with Wonder Woman, four with Transformers, four with Despicable Me. blendermf and jeterama have all three. Should these numbers prove close, there will be interesting battles between blendermf and jeterama’s Transformers and Smeesmii’s Planet of the Apes, while the tag team switches for blendermf and Smeesmii’s4 Captain Underpants vs jeterama’s Girls Trip.
Will The Dark Tower prove a secret weapon for Pedz? Will early star Boss Baby lead littlenicky160 over this collection of upstarts? Will somebody outside this top five sneak to the top? Will Dunkirk make it’s $240M after all and make us look really stupid?
Come back and find out.
1 Sure, the same could be said for Transformers, but come on.
2 We never claimed to be the New York Times.
3 We understand if Scott K, Switesir, and aiq see Box Office Pro’s disagreement with us as good news.
4 This might be a good time to emphasize that we plugged in these numbers without paying any attention to who owned what, and that the results are completely independent of outside influence, including but not limited to Smeesmii (aka Mrs. MovieLeagueMike) peering over our shoulder as we typed and casually pinching and twisting half an inch of our neck skin between a very sharp thumbnail and fingernail.
The people who make this possible. Join them at http://patreon.com/crumdum.
Justin R Young
JoJo's Bizarre Adventure OC Tournament #4: R1M17 - Onkivulet vs. Michelle Xu
The Civil Disobedients, with a score of 73 to Black Label Society’s 55!
|Popularity||Prince Johnny||27-13||At 6-3, this is our lowest turnout yet this tourney. Not that we blame you. There was a lot to take in.|
Michelle groaned as she disembarked the plane, walking up the corridor and into the airport terminal. She lugged her backpack and collapsed in a seat with an sigh. The first leg of her journey was over, but the rest of her flight to Istanbul would be over 11 hours. After an hour’s layover, they’d leave and arrive in Instabul at about 8 AM local time. Ideally, Michelle would fall asleep a few hours into the flight and wake up refreshed, but she was exhausted.
Even though it was early afternoon in DC, she had gotten up early to make her 5 hour flight from California. Moreover, she spent her time huddled over her cell phone, studying textbooks to the best of her ability from the wee hours of the morning. With her backpack dropped in front of her, she tilted her head and her eyelids began to droop. It was risky - not knowing who was around or when to wake up - but Michelle soon drifted off.
The bar bustled as the Civil Disobedients cheered at their table, celebrating Baroness’ successful return from Switzerland. Baroness pounded back another shot out of her souvenir, everyone clapping around her. Michelle Xu, as per usual, mostly kept quiet, giving a slight smile, but staying mostly reserved.
“So, Michelle!” A grinning Baroness slurred, slamming her glass onto the table and looking over at the student. “You’re one of the last one of us here not to take up a match! What the fuck gives?”
Michelle glanced away, scratching the back of her head. “Well… I’m pretty busy with school, you know? I like hanging out with you guys, I just don’t have a lot of time for the game…” she said, taking a small sip of her drink. Baroness brought her phone out, placing it on the table and pushing it towards Michelle.
“I want you to check this out. It’s a match in Istanbul, Turkey. We’ve got the funds to fly you out there, and after you get the Tag you can take a little time to see the sights. No worries!” She says, giving a thumbs up. She knew Michelle was one of the more nervous ones on the team, so she wanted to sweeten the deal to make sure the team secured another Tag.
“Well…” Michelle twiddled her thumbs, glancing to the side. “I don’t think I can really do that, I have a midterm coming up, and it’s worth like… 20% of my grade.” Baroness sighed, pinching the bridge of her nose. She was giving this bitch an opportunity to go halfway across the world, and all she was worried about was her grade?
“Well fuck that! I’ll pull some strings to get you an extension!” Baroness said assuredly. Michelle’s eyes widened, pushing the phone back to Baroness. “Deal!” She said, standing up and pushing her chair back.
“I’ll go get packed!” And with that, Michelle was off. Baroness shook her head, not really understanding Michelle’s thought process. her demeanor instantly changed as she downed another shot, the table continuing to cheer.
She looked at her flight information on her phone: The flight had taken off from California, have a layover in DC - where she was boarding - and then go straight on to Turkey. The match hint was quite vague, but made clear where they were supposed to go: “Nobody’s business but the Turks!”
How the Admins thought that adding such a vague hint was a good idea was anybody’s guess, but it didn’t hurt to go out there and check. At the very least, it would be a good chance to gather intel, and Turkey was large enough that they were bound to stumble upon some Tag somewhere. Even if she was graced with a First Class seat, she could still do without the 11 hour flight.
When the plane was finally ready for boarding, Onkivulet rose from her seat, stowing her newspaper into bag and walking to join the first boarding group. As she waited in line, she noticed a young woman, slumped in her seat and snoring softly - probably a passenger of the flight from California. Floating behind her, however, was what differentiated her from the others: the gnarled knot of thorns and vines contorted into the form of a man.
She saw a field of clouds, rust red and hanging low in a green sky. A field of yellow-green wheat on a hill, a mountain, thrusting impossibly high up to the sky. The clouds above, the land below, both turning and churning slowly in unison, focused to its apex. On its peak, a gazelle sleeping soundly. From the shadowy distance of the foothills below, a horse approached. As it methodically, effortlessly scaled the peaks and drew nearer to the gazelle, its features became clearer to Michelle, more monstrous than equine.
It was a garish display of colors, limbs and heads appearing and disappearing. Once two headed, then four, then none. A horrific group of things superimposed on each other like some abstract nightmare, a greasy, tattered mane moving over itself. It stumbled and lumbered, seemingly slowly, seemingly randomly. But each of its steps brought the beast to its quarry quickly, deliberately, ruthlessly, as it twisted the very earth underfoot to facilitate its warpath.
What remained constant were its teeth, and its baleful, cold, and calculating eyes.
To the gazelle’s ignorance and Michelle’s horror, its warping thing-that-could-be-called-a-face opened up to reveal row after row of twisting fangs, ticking together as the horse climbed to the peak. They writhed in anticipation, all ready and poised to snap down on the gazelle’s ne—
Gasping for air, Michelle awoke with a start to see a tall, imposing woman glaring down at her - or maybe the spirit behind her - before turning to board the plane. With several deep breaths, her heart rate gradually slowed, and the blood gradually returned to her cheeks. That dream was...different. Nonetheless, when her boarding group was called, she gathered her things and boarded.
The flight had been pleasant enough. There was plenty of legroom, the food had been palettable, and she had read the Wall Street Journal cover to cover - Aesop Rock’s cover story on shark fishing in Japan was interesting, but her restless mind had strayed while she read. Even if she was ‘just another Stand user,’ that girl stuck out: if she were just going on a trip, there were more convenient flights. She was a rival competitor.
Onkivulet got up, confirming that the other passengers were all fast asleep. The girl had been among the last to board, so she would probably be in the back of the plane. Onkivulet smiled softly to herself. Regardless of whether or not they had the same Tag in mind, at the very least, she would be thinning the competition: something she was more than capable of. However, a flickering in the corner of her eye piqued her curiosity...
A few of the seatback televisions turned on, apparently of their own volition, revealing Andromeda’s worried face. ”I might not be able to keep you two from fighting, but what I can do is promise that whoever wins can get a Tag now, if and ONLY if you promise not to break the plane or hurt any of these innocent bystanders? We have a deal?”
Michelle nodded at the display before it went black. She got out of her seat and into the aisle, ｢E Flat｣ manifesting behind her as they readied themselves. She had little idea what was going on, but her resolve stiffened. The path before her was clear.
The 747 cabin is 6.1 meters wide and 76 meters long, the ceiling is 2.5 meters at the sides of the cabin, but goes up to 3 meters at the center due to its arch. The upper deck has a similar ceiling.
As per Andromeda’s conditions, you are highly advised against harming its passengers, who have flat 2 Physicals, 5 Deep Sleeper, and 2 Jetlag. They’re more or less impossible to wake up. Similarly, causing significant structural damage to the plane is grounds for instant disqualification.
Goal: RETIRE your opponent!
Additional Information: The luggage in the overhead bins - suitcases of laptops, toiletries, sweaters, and the like - is also available for use. Moreover, you can climb over passengers in the more densely packed Economy Class, but it’ll take a bit.
|Black Label Society||Onkivulet||“Excuse me, sir, where do you think you’re going? That door leads to the cockpit, passengers are not allowed in there!” Be it in your quest for knowledge or for conquest, you will not be stopped. Explore as much of the plane as possible, and utilize your inventory and the items already scattered around as you can!|
|Civil Disobedients||Michelle Xu||“Determining the direction that the flow of energy from ‘water’ and ‘wind originates from the natural world helps to determine a ‘path’ that an individual should follow in his or her life.” The path is long and winding, but it will lead to wisdom and victory. Explore as much of the plane as possible, and utilize your inventory and the items already scattered around as you can!|
Link to R1 Match Schedule