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Speculation and new Statistics Analysis - Crystal Gigantuars present in a node increase the drop rate of Magicite
In the past, the average Magicite drop rate has been calculated with use of statistical data collection as 0.91 per wave (±0.15 at 95% confidence interval). This is from the statistical data of 2,860 Magicite from 3,143 waves at varied locations. In summary, reasonably good data but not quite perfect. Sufficient for a range value between 0.76 and 1.06 Magicite per wave at 95% chance. In my several months of farming at Greydawn Wood, this numeric range has been consistently correct and I've used it when planning out my farming.
More recently, u/DdrNerd took to collecting some data at Untramelled Peak. In 200 runs (1,200 waves) he gained 1,440 Magicite, resulting in 1.2 Magicite per wave (±0.27 at 95% confidence interval). That's a 95% chance of the "real value" being between 0.93 and 1.47. Since this Magicite rate is a fair bit higher than the previous data and Untramelled Peak has a lot of monsters, it was simply concluded that more monster spawns slightly increased the Magicite rate. Yet, not to the extent where any node could be a more efficient node than Greydawn Wood for farming Magicite, so no revolutionary changes happened in its farming. I farmed at Skeleton Hill (which has an equal amount of monster spawns) and yielded the same Magicite rate, so I perceived it as reaffirming the conclusion.
However, new data has left me really thinking. Over this past Mobius Day I have recorded my own farming and therefore acquired further data for Magicite per wave. This time, located at Gigantuar Battlefield. I noticed early on that I seemed to be getting an unusually large amount of Magicite from farming there. In fact, I have recorded 200 node clears (1,200 waves) and 1,900 Magicite gained. That calculates to 1.58 Magicite per wave and ±0.31 at 95% confidence interval, resulting in a numeric range between 1.27 and 1.89 Magicite per wave. It's a fairly wide range, but there's still a 95% chance of the "real value" being somewhere in there so it's okay for the current purposes.
The initial theory is that "higher monster spawn rates increase Magicite drop rate". But if this is so, why would Gigantuar Battlefield have a higher Magicite rate than Skeleton Hill and Untramelled Peak? It has around 2/3 as many monster spawns (3 per wave vs. 5 per wave), so with the previous theory Gigantuar Battlefield should actually yield less Magicite than those two nodes. But preliminary testing demonstrates that it actually yields more.
The smallest range value of Magicite per wave at Gigantuar Battlefield (1.27) is greater than the largest range value of Greydawn Wood (1.06). This means those ranges do not intersect and there is at least a 95% chance of their Magicite drop rates being different as such. The smallest range value of Magicite per wave at Gigantuar Battlefield (1.27) is very close to the approximated value of Untramelled Peak (1.2). This makes it very likely to have a higher drop rate. In sequence of highest Magicite drop rate to lowest, it goes Gigantuar Battlefield, then Untramelled Peak / Skeleton Hill, and finally Greydawn Wood / other standard nodes.
Preliminary results from collected data indicate that Gigantuar Battlefield has a much higher Crystal Gigantuar spawn rate, almost double that of Skeleton Hill and Untramelled Peak. Therefore, the sequence of Crystal Gigantuar spawn rate matches up to the sequence of Magicite drop rate. In fact, preliminary data suggests they match up in a linear fashion, further enforcing that they're related factors. I have thus drawn a new conclusion with ample evidence; "Higher Crystal Gigantuar spawn rates increase Magicite drop rate". In the very least, MP and the previous Christmas event are proof that the game programmers are able to manipulate the probability of Magicite drop rate, so there's a precedent that it's possible.
What's next - Data collectionA lot more data is required if we are to understand the precise effects of Crystal Gigantuar spawns on Magicite drop rate. The specific questions that need answering are:
- Simply confirming the basis of the theory that "higher Crystal Gigantuar spawn rates in a node Magicite drop rate". My data size was decent, but far from excellent.
- Does a Crystal Gigantuar need to spawn in a node run for increased Magicite rewards?
- Is the increased Magicite drop rate simply from the Crystal Gigantuars themselves, or is there some sort of boost they provide to the node itself?
What we need are runs of various C. Gigantuar spawn rates. This then requires a lot of unique contributions rather than single large contributions. In other words, if you're going to contribute, it would be best if you set yourself a routine of submitting your data under a new line every 5 or so runs. The idea here is that because Magicite may depend on the individual C. Gigantuar spawns, as in a run with a spawn might have booted Magicite rates, it is important to collect individual results separate to the larger average. The data probably won't look complete until the end of next Mobius day when everyone's able to farm Magicite again.
I understand that a level of faith is needed in me to contribute to this, since the initial theory is a bit far-fetched and this kind of theory gets posted a lot. I therefore massively appreciate anyone's consideration in contributing for the sake of the speculation. Yet, if the theory is proven true, it could change the way we play the game. Nodes with Crystal Gigantuar spawns could be the ideal Magicite farming locations in SP and we might never need to visit the old and boring Greydawn Wood again. If the theory is proven false, then at the very least we have a really good size of data on the drop rate of Magicite in general.
About the data collection spreadsheetFF Mobius’s Stamina system prohibits a single person from recording all the needed data. This is where you (the community) helps out, and this is by entering your gaming results into the community project spreadsheet. I’ve worked on making the interface as friendly as possible. You don’t need to sign in, just open it up and write in your data. Alternatively if you’d prefer, you can PM me or leave a comment in this thread with your results and I’ll do that for you.
A bit more effort is asked on your part than usual, but still not too much. That's not to disregard that it would be extremely appreciated! Since a lot of us will dump our daily Stamina in Gigantuar Battlefield on auto, all you need to do is keep record of your node completions and number of Crystal Gigantuars defeated. Also, please keep in mind that acquiring no Magicite is equally valuable compared to acquiring a lot. The data of 'failed attempts' is crucial to collecting the full amount of data needed.
Every small bit counts to make the data more reliable and complete, so please help out! Because some users have done extensive testing in the past for all sorts of metrics (thanks again everyone!), we only need to know Magicite rates compared to Crystal Gigantuar spawns.
32 Teams / 32 Days: Day 4; The San Francisco 49ers
Division: NFC West
Record: 5-11 (1-5 division record )
SoS: 0.539 (2nd Hardest)
ASoS: 0.529 (T-4th Hardest)
Draft Picks: 1 (17). Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon 2 (14). Jaquiski Tartt, S, Samford 3 (15). Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia 4 (18). Blake Bell, TE, Oklahoma 4 (27). Mike Davis, RB, South Carolina 4 (33). DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech 5 (29). Bradley Pinion, P, Clemson 6 (14). Ian Silberman, OL, Boston College 7 (27). Trenton Brown, OL, Florida 7 (37). Rory Anderson, TE, South Carolina
Offseason: The 2014 season was full of distractions that began in week 1. It was reported that Coach Harbaugh and upper management were not getting along and regardless if they won the Super Bowl that year, Harbaugh would be fired. This came as a shock to many fans and most didn’t believe it for most of the season. Why would anyone in their right mind want to get rid of the most successful coach we have had in more than a decade? Well folks, here we are. The season ended with a “mutual” parting of ways between Harbaugh and the 49ers. Enter Tomsula. After passing over Vic Fangio, which most fans were in favor of, Tomsula was jumped from defensive line coach to head coach. He was considered to be a “players” coach with hardly any head coaching experience. This was definitely not a decision to be optimistic about. This promotion also guaranteed the exit of most of the superb assistant staff. Fangio fled to Chicago after being passed over and took Donatell with him(DB’s coach who consistently turned out excellent secondary performance from average contributors.) Greg Roman left for Buffalo and while his name was often cursed by fans, his subsequent results with Tyrod Taylor and the revelations of the chimeric play-calling in SF have made this quite a loss.
And then the real shitstorm began:
Free Agency Departures: Michael Crabtree Perrish Cox Chris Culliver Dan Skuta Frank Gore Mike Iupati
Retired: Anthony Davis Justin Smith Chris Borland Patrick Willis
Trades: Andy Lee
Dishonorable Mentions: Aldon Smith
We lost a lot of talent through free agency. Crabtree is having a lot of success at Oakland, Gore is still trucking on with the Colts, Iupati kept Palmer safe for much of the season and helped CJ2K turn in a renaissance rushing performance , and losing 2 CBs in Culliver and Cox really hurt us down the field. However, the real damage was done by player retirements, both unexpected and expected . Justin Smith, a beast of a DT, gone. Patrick Willis, the heart and soul of our defense, gone. Chris Borland, a VERY, VERY promising young talent that filled in for Willis while he was injured, gone. Anthony Davis still insists that he will be coming back the following season so I guess we can hold our breath on that one because his presence was sorely missed. I think it is worth noting that trading Andy Lee away definitely had an impact in our games. He is one of the best punters in football and as the season unfolded, his replacement, Pinion, did not do too well. With this amount of turnover, fans were getting very anxious for the upcoming season. We held our breath and hoped for the best. Aldon Smith was cut from the team after too many incidents off of the field. He went to Oakland for about half the season before the NFL suspended him.
Free Agency OL Ben Gottschalk OL Justin Renfrow LB Phillip Wheeler LB Nick Bellore RB Reggie Bush OL Erik Pears CB Shareece Wright WR Torrey Smith signs WR Jerome Simpson DT Darnell Dockett RB/Returner Jarryd Hayne
Nothing to really brag about. Reggie Bush was extremely underwhelming, Erik Pears was a joke, Shareece Wright did help us win a game but by playing for the other team, Torrey Smith wasn't utilized due to the QB situation, and Jerome Simpson came back from his suspension with very little to do. Jarryd Hayne entered the league with a lot of hype. A high profile former NRL (National Rugby League) player, Hayne showed signs of promise during the preseason games. He made the 53 man roster but was plagued by fumbling punts. He was later cut and resigned to the practice squad to allow him to learn the game. It will be interesting to see how he develops. Everyone else on the list are barely afterthoughts.
Week 1 vs MIN, W 20-3 (1-0, !) For their first game of the season, the 49ers hosted the Vikings for Monday Night Football, donning their brand spanking new black alternate jerseys. Man they looked nice under the lights. The game started slow but then picked up once Carlos Hyde got into a rhythm. He ended the game with a great 26 carries for 168 yards while scoring the only 2 TDs in the game. Kaepernick looked nice. He stayed in the pocket and looked to throw first instead of running. Vernon Davis also caught a few of passes and made himself relevant. Our defense played strong; Adrian Peterson didn’t go anywhere, finishing the game with only 31 yards . This was a great way to start the season after all of the turmoil that preceded it. Niners fans were optimistic.
Week 2 @ PIT, L 18-43 (1-1, :-/ ) The 49ers travelled to Pittsburgh for their 2nd game of the season and t his game got out of quickly. Antonio Brown burned our secondary all game, catching 9 passes for 195 yards and a TD. Big Ben had a field day, throwing for 369 yards and 3 TDs. At the end of the first half, the score was 3-29 Pittsburgh. The 49ers defense were not able to stop any plays that went down the field. Kaepernick had a quiet first half but came out blazing in the 2nd. He ended the game throwing for 335 yards and 2 TDs. Carlos Hyde took a hit to the head and cleared concussion protocols but was not allowed back in to the game, a decision made by Tomsula. The 49ers managed to put up points in the 2nd half but were still unable to stop the Steelers from scoring . All in all this loss was generally considered a learning experience for the young defense, and Niners fans accepted that they got outplayed by a very strong Steelers offense.
Week 3 @ ARI, L 7-47 (1-2, o_0 ) A very nasty game. Kaepernick came out throwing 2 pick 6s in the first quarter, in consecutive possessions, instantly giving the Cardinals a 14-0 lead. The 49ers defense exhibited very poor tackling all game long, allowing short passes to become long gains. Despite being down, the 49ers continued to try to run, with not much success. Kaepernick ended the game with a very sad 67 passing yards and 4 interceptions. On the other hand, Palmer had a lot of cushion to work with, and threw for 311 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT . After the game Tyrann Mathieu made a comment saying that it was easy for them to read our offense since it had been simplified to help Kaep. This was a game that everyone wanted to forget and move on from as soon as possible. Niners fans had no words to describe what just happened.
Week 4 vs. GB, L 3-17 (1-3, :’( ) With the memory of Arizona still fresh in everyone’s mind, the 49ers played very conservatively. The defense played well, as they usually did at home throughout the season, and kept Rodgers and the packers to only 7 points in the first half. However Kaepernick looked scared; he threw many passes at the feet of the receivers, he held on to the ball for too long and the offensive line was no help at all either resulting in 6 sacks. Everyone was frustrated . A very hard game to watch as a fan. Kaepernick had never lost to the Packers before this game and we still expected him to burn them with his legs as he usually did, but it was not to be . There is something to be said about keeping a red hot Packers team to only 17 points but it meant nothing without a victory. Niners fans were worried.
Week 5 @ NYG, L 27-30 (1-4, ! ¡ ) Kaepernick was very conscious of the mistakes he made during the Packers game. He was too cautious; and he was playing not to lose. This game showed that he had become focused on that change in playstyle . The entire rest of the offense showed improvement. Hyde ran for 93 yards and a touchdown while Kaepernick threw for 262 yards and 2 TDs. This game was close to the very end. The 49ers were up 27 to 23 with 26 seconds left in the game. Eli threw an incomplete pass to OBJ but there was a DPI called on Ackers, putting the Giants in the red zone. The very next play Eli dropped back and threw a strike to Donnell for the go-ahead TD, thus ending the game. The 49ers defense was shaky as it had always been away from home this season; allowing Manning to throw for 441 yards and 3 TDs. Though it wasn’t a win, the 49ers looked to be back on track to winning. Niners fans were cautiously optimistic again.
Week 6 vs. BAL, W 20-25 (2-4, ) After a strong performance the week before, the 49er offense picked up where it left off. Kaepernick took his shots down the field connecting with Boldin and Smith for 51 and 76 yard chunks respectively. Bruce Miller also made a big impact in this game, making 3 catches for 89 yards. Quinton Patton caught the first TD pass of his career with a 21 yard strike from Kaepernick. The final play was a Hail Mary thrown by Flacco which was knocked down in the end zone and secured the 49ers their 2nd victory. Niners fans were happy to see the team producing on offense.
Week 7 vs. SEA, L 20-3 (2-5, X_x ) Can I skip this one? It seemed like the 49ers reverted back to their old ways in this game. They couldn’t contain Marshawn Lynch and had trouble covering down the field. The score at halftime was 17-0. Kaepernick made some bad throws but even the throws he made perfectly were dropped by the receivers. The Seahawks D line controlled most of the game, getting to Kaepernick multiple times.. It should be noted that Carlos Hyde had been struggling with a foot injury for a couple of weeks and this would be the last week he was active before being placed on IR in week 13. Kaepernick is now 1-6 against the Seahawks Niners fans groaned again.
Week 8 @ STL, L 6-27 (2-6, … ) Todd Gurley gashed the 49ers big time in this game, running for 133 yards and a TD. The 49ers offense was ineffective again, with Kaepernick completing less than 50% of his passes for only 162 yards. Reggie Bush injured himself on a punt return when he ran out of bounds and slid onto concrete. The 49ers got Rammed pretty hard on defense, not being able to make tackles and giving up chunk plays. It was in this game Torrey Smith was left wide open with the 49ers backed up at their own 2 yard line. Before the snap he was jumping up and down and waving his hands to get Kaepernick’s attention but Kaep didn’t see him, instead snapping the ball and handing it off to Mike Davis. This eventually led to the Rams tackling Davis for a safety on that drive. Kaepernick would get benched after this game in favor of Blaine Gabbert. Niners fans started to realize that the year was lost.
Week 9 vs ATL, W 16-17 (3-6, Is there an emoticon for “I don’t know what to do with my hands”?) The Return of The Gabbert. This wasn’t a spectacular performance by any stretch of the imagination, but Gabbert got the job done. The 49ers scored all 17 of their points in the 2nd quarter and it was enough to win. Gabbert threw 15 times for 185 yards and 2 TDs. The receivers were dropping a lot of passes this game. Gabbert got hit hard and had to sit out for one play which allowed Kaepernick to step in. He threw a very nice pass down the seam but it was dropped by the intended target. As a side note, many people were claiming that fans were booing Kaepernick when he came in for that play. That is incorrect. They were booing because the officials forced Gabbert to sit out for that play. Gabbert also clinched the victory by running for 5 yards to convert a third down which lead to the 2 minute warning in the 4th quarter. Niners fans were happy to get a win, especially against a then well regarded Falcons team.
Week 10, BYE Gabbert confirmed to start against the Seahawks in week 11. The day before their next game, it was announced that Kaepernick was put on IR due to a shoulder injury. Niners fans started looking towards next season.
Week 11 @ SEA, L 13-29 (3-7, $#@% ) Can I skip this one too? Played in Seattle this time, the 49ers didn’t fare much better than before . Thomas Rawls, who was filling in for the injured Marshawn Lynch, wrecked the 49ers defense with 255 total yards. Our secondary looked as it had all year, lost and unable to tackle . Unable to cover the deep ball, Wilson took advantage . Throwing for 260 yards and 3 TDs, Wilson comfortably lead his team to an easy victory, sweeping the 49ers. With no consistency in the backfield, the 49ers were not able to lean on the run game. Gabbert threw a touchdown, which is 1 TD more than Kaepernick in week 7, but failed to create any plays to put the team in a winning position. Niners fans picked a second team to root for while the season dragged along.
Week 12 vs. ARI, L 19-13 (4-7 3-8, >:-( ) This was the most frustrating game of the season in my opinion. After getting manhandled by the Cardinals earlier in the year, the 49ers had a legitimate chance to win this game. Although the 49ers could have done more (a muffed punt, dropped INT), truly egregious refereeing (questionable DPI call, questionable roughing the passer call, blatant delay of game non-call) screwed the 49ers out of a well-deserved victory. The 49ers defense played well, allowing only 19 points out of the Cardinals. Gabbert threw for 318 yards (47 yards more than Palmer ) and 1 TD (Palmer had 0 passing TDs). Gabbert operated the offense with no run game which made defensive play calling easier against them. Niners fans were frustrated losing a game because of the refs.
Week 13 @ CHI, W 26-20 OT (4-8, O_o) Trying to forget about the previous week, the 49ers travelled to Soldier Field to take on the Bears. This game was close all the way through. The teams matched each other point for point down to the 4th quarter. Jimmy Ward scored the 49ers first defensive touchdown of the year with a pick 6 off of Cutler late in the 1st quarter. The 49ers trailed by 7 with under 2 minutes to play in the 4th and on 3rd and 3, Blaine Gabbert took off on a very Kaepernick-esque 44 yard touchdown run, tying the game. The Bears had a chance to win the game in the final seconds of the 4th quarter but missed a 36 yard field goal, sending the game to overtime. The 49ers won the toss and proceeded to go 3 and out as did the Bears on their first possession. On the first play of their 2nd possession, the 49ers ran a play action pass and Gabbert threw a beauty to Torrey Smith for a 71 yard game winning touchdown. Niners fans were happy to watch a competitive game.
Week 14 @ CLE, L 10-24 (4-9, -__-) The 49ers came crashing down from their high of beating the Bears. The offense could not get in to a rhythm and the defense struggled to cover anything and committed costly penalties. They allowed Crowell to run for 145 yards and 2 TDs with only 20 carries, giving him an average of 7.25 YPC. Manziel looked sharp this game. Besides one ill advised throw across his body that led to an interception, he made a sufficient amount of plays to win the game for his team. Niners fans are looking forward to a high draft pick.
Week 15 vs CIN, L 24-14 (4-10, x_x) Despite the final score, this game was not close at all. The Bengals led the 49ers 24-0 in the third quarter. The fans were clearly frustrated, booing the team off the field at halftime. Injuries continued to plague the 49ers, losing their 4th string RB Shaun Draughn in the 2nd quarter due to a knee injury. With no ground game to work with, Gabbert threw the ball 50 times, completing 30 passes for 295 yards and a TD. Vance McDonald had 2 interceptions caught over him after he failed to pull in the pass, deflecting it into the hands of the defenders. The 49er offense went 2 for 14 on third downs this game. This loss secured the 49ers last place in the NFC West, the first time since 2005, and the win clinched a playoff berth for the Bengals. Niners fans hear echoes of “Who’s got it better than us?” answering “Eeevvverrybooddyyy”.
Week 16 @ DET, L 17-32 (4-11, :( ) The 49ers offense had a strong first half scoring 17 points and only trailing by 3 during halftime. The defense on the other hand, was hurting the rest of the team. They committed SIX offsides/neutral zone penalties in the first half, keeping drives alive for the Lions. The 49ers offense had no success whatsoever in the 2nd half and didn’t score any points. Play calling was an issue for the 49ers after halftime. Their newly signed RB, DuJuan Harris, had 74 yards for 9 carries in the first half but only carried the ball twice in the 2nd half, leaving fans scratching their heads. Niners fans are still waiting to win with class.
Week 17 vs STL, W 16-19 OT (5-11, yawn) For the last game of the season the 49ers hosted the Rams. The previous meeting between these two teams was very one sided and the 49ers were aware of that. As the 49ers usually did at home, they played solid defense and stuffed the run game. Gabbert had a solid day, throwing for 354 yards and a TD to Anquan Boldin. At the bottom of the 3rd quarter, Rams kicker Zuerlein missed a 52 yard FG attempt which proved to be costly at the end. A couple of drives later, Gabbert drives 80 yards in 12 plays reaching the 8 yard line. He fumbles the 3rd down snap and Harris jumps on it to save the drive. Dawson kicks a 38 yard field goal to tie the game, eventually sending it to overtime. The 49ers got the ball first in OT and ended their drive with a punt. The Rams drove 60 yards on their possession and lined up for a 46 yard field goal which was blocked by Dontae Johnson, refusing to let the season end. The 49ers take advantage of the opportunity and end the game with a 23 yard Phil Dawson field goal. A couple hours after the game, it was announced that Jim Tomsula was fired, leaving the team in search of a new Head Coach. Niners fans are wondering if their team will ever be stable again.
High Points: Not really many high points during this season besides week 1. To be very optimistic, we learned that the 49ers have talent on that roster that definitely needs grooming. NaVorro Bowman, returning from a career threatening injury, ended the season leading the NFL in tackles and was selected to the Pro Bowl. The 49ers also learned that they have a capable backup QB in Blaine Gabbert, though fans are still on the fence on whether he is “starter” material.
Low Points: Oh man where to begin. The franchise quarterback was playing at a level that would get him benched in high school football. The RB position was plagued with injuries. The O-Line was pathetic at best. There was turmoil in the locker room and a definite lack of leadership. The offensive play calling was mediocre. This list gets pretty extensive so for the sake of sanity, let's try not to relive it.
Free Agents (Unrestricted) WR Anquan Boldin G Alex Boone RB Reggie Bush TE Garrettt Celek K Phil Dawson NT Ian Williams
Free Agents (Restricted) ILB Ray-Ray Armstrong DL Tony Jerod-Eddie LB Michael Wilhoite
Free Agency/Draft Concerns: The obvious here is a QB. With Chip Kelly steering the ship for the upcoming season, I believe he will keep Kaepernick or Gabbert and look to improve at other positions. We desperately need to patch up our offensive line, specifically the tackles. No QB can be very successful behind that Maginot line. We need more talent at the WR position as well. We have Torrey Smith for the deep threat but our other WRs seem to have trouble getting open, or when they are open, they have trouble catching the ball, save for Anquan Boldin. On defense, 1 more strong LB would be helpful to compliment Bowman. Our D line has had its ups and downs during the season and we have plenty of depth there but we are sorely missing Aldon Smith and Justin Smith. The secondary needs help as well, they gave up way too many big plays.
Finals Thoughts: This has been a hell of a year. No one knew what to expect going in but surely this was a disaster beyond what we could have expected. Many Jed York haters were born this season, enough to have a plane fly over Levi's Stadium during a game asking for his resignation. But the Faithful have stayed true and still wear their red & gold loud & proud. We look forward to having Chip Kelly put together a championship team.
Shoutouts: THEGRAPEESCAPE - thanks for the help, especially with the formatting skepticismissurvival - thanks for giving me the opportunity to hone my writing skills The random guy that messaged me asking if he could help and when I asked for his email address it read "seahawksrule". At least you made me laugh. /49ers - I only signed up for a Reddit account so I could take part of the conversation with the community. Enjoy the offseason boys, I'll be lurking around till August.
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